Current community forecast
Yes 93.8%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 24, 5:12 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first video generation model cost >$0.10/minute?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
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KalshiWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2030, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)