Current community forecast
No 76.6%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 24, 3:22 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030?
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2027, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETLoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
- Odd/Even Total Kills100%
- First Blood in Game 1?100%
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?100%
+61 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.4M
- 24h Vol
- $4.4M
KALSHINorth Carolina vs Clemson
- North Carolina+44.0pt84%
- Clemson-44.0pt16%
- Total Vol
- $4.2M
- 24h Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIRoma vs Inter
- Tie+52.0pt78.4%
- Inter-23.0pt13.7%
- Roma-28.0pt7.8%
- Total Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIBiltmore Championship Asheville Winner
- Neal Shipley+12.0pt44.8%
- Ben Kohles+9.0pt19.8%
- Ricky Castillo+0.2pt8.3%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIGeorgia vs Arkansas
- Georgia+3.0pt99%
- Arkansas-4.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $3.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
KALSHIMercer vs Georgia Tech
- Georgia Tech99%
- Mercer1%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
- Coastal Carolina vs Delaware
- Quevedo vs Blinkova
- Sevilla vs Barcelona
- NC St. vs Vanderbilt
- BMW PGA Championship Winner
- Georgia vs Arkansas: Spread
- North Carolina vs Clemson: Spread
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
- Sevilla FC vs. FC Barcelona
- Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027? resolve?
- Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2027, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria: