Current community forecast
No 78.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 24, 3:22 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2027, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
