KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 80%
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$0.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 28.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 5:55 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
PolymarketArgentina monthly inflation — August 2026
FutuurWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExRules
If United States Core Inflation Rate YoY is above United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY for August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only the first non-preliminary value reported for each measure will be used.
- The values will be compared as published in percent.
- A tie resolves No, and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in August??
- Kalshi prices No at 80% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in August? resolve?
- Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in August? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in August? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If United States Core Inflation Rate YoY is above United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY for August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.