KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.06% or above (92%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.06% or above92%
5.04% or above99%
5.08% or above11%
5.1% or above7%
5.14% or above25%
4.98% or above96%
5.02% or above97%
5.12% or above2%
5% or above96%
4.86% or above99%
4.88% or above99%
4.9% or above99%
4.92% or above99%
4.94% or above99%
4.96% or above99%
5.16% or above25%
5.18% or above1%
5.2% or above1%
5.22% or above1%
5.24% or above1%
5.26% or above1%
5.28% or above1%
5.3% or above1%
5.32% or above1%
5.34% or above1%
5.04% or aboveLost
4.98% or aboveLost
5.02% or aboveLost
5% or aboveLost
4.86% or aboveLost
4.88% or aboveLost
4.9% or aboveLost
4.92% or aboveLost
4.94% or aboveLost
4.96% or aboveLost
5.06% or aboveWon
5.14% or aboveLost
5.16% or aboveLost
5.08% or aboveLost
5.1% or aboveLost
5.12% or aboveLost
5.18% or aboveLost
5.2% or aboveLost
5.22% or aboveLost
5.24% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 29, 2026, or one week following Sep 29, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
