KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.41% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 9, 2026, 9:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
4.41% or above99%
4.43% or above99%
4.45% or above99%
4.47% or above98%
4.49% or above0%
4.51% or above0%
4.53% or above75%
4.55% or above99%
4.57% or above29%
4.59% or above0%
4.61% or above15%
4.63% or above0%
4.65% or above2%
4.67% or above0%
4.69% or above0%
4.41% or aboveWon
4.43% or aboveLost
4.45% or aboveLost
4.47% or aboveLost
4.49% or aboveLost
4.51% or aboveLost
4.53% or aboveLost
4.55% or aboveLost
4.57% or aboveLost
4.61% or aboveLost
4.65% or aboveLost
4.59% or aboveLost
4.63% or aboveLost
4.67% or aboveLost
4.69% or aboveLost
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.40% on Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 8, 2026, or one week following Sep 8, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.42% on Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.44% on Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.46% on Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.48% on Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.