KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.95% or above (78%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 11:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 7:07 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.95% or above78%
4.93% or above85%
4.91% or above82%
4.97% or above68%
5.03% or above2%
4.87% or above92%
4.89% or above90%
4.99% or above13%
5.01% or above7%
4.81% or above98%
4.83% or above97%
4.85% or above96%
5.05% or above0%
5.07% or above0%
5.09% or above0%
4.81% or aboveLost
4.83% or aboveLost
4.85% or aboveLost
4.87% or aboveLost
4.91% or aboveLost
4.89% or aboveLost
4.93% or aboveLost
4.95% or aboveWon
4.97% or aboveLost
4.99% or aboveLost
5.01% or aboveLost
5.03% or aboveLost
5.05% or aboveLost
5.07% or aboveLost
5.09% or aboveLost
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Rules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.94% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 21, 2026, or one week following Oct 21, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.81% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.83% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.82% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.85% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.87% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.86% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.91% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.90% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.89% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.93% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.92% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.95% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.94% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.97% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.96% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.99% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.98% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.01% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.00% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.03% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.02% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.05% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.04% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.07% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.06% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.09% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.