KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above .7% 38%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquiditySpread
19.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Kalshi10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold Markets10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Please note that intraday changes will not be reflected in the Underlying, as FRED only posts a single value per day.
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
- $13.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-14.5pt63%
- Below 4.73%-24.0pt49%
- Below 4.61%25%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.74% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.3K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+40.0pt88%
- 4.85%+27.5pt67%
- 4.88%-0.5pt30%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
- 5.13% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
- 4.43% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above .7% at 38% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026 resolve?
- Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes.