KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above .7% · —
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Stored price
Above .7% 16%Leader of 4 outcomes
Above .7% 16%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$94.8
Open interest
$2.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above .7%Spread
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Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · Above .7%
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Please note that intraday changes will not be reflected in the Underlying, as FRED only posts a single value per day.
Rules for each outcome
- Above .7%
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above .8%
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above .9%
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1.00%
- If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.