KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.17% or above (98%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 10:02 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.31% or above51%
5.29% or above1%
5.33% or above28%
5.35% or above21%
5.37% or above8%
5.39% or above0%
5.23% or above26%
5.27% or above93%
5.17% or above0%
5.25% or above29%
5.21% or above95%
5.19% or above0%
5.11% or above0%
5.13% or above98%
5.15% or above0%
5.19% or aboveLost
5.11% or aboveLost
5.13% or aboveLost
5.15% or aboveLost
5.17% or aboveWon
5.21% or aboveLost
5.25% or aboveLost
5.23% or aboveLost
5.37% or aboveLost
5.31% or aboveLost
5.29% or aboveLost
5.33% or aboveLost
5.35% or aboveLost
5.39% or aboveLost
5.27% or aboveLost
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on Oct 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 8, 2026, or one week following Oct 8, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.12% on Oct 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.14% on Oct 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on Oct 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.18% on Oct 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.