KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 1, 2026 (81%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 5:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
28%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Before Nov 1, 202667%
Before Oct 1, 202681%
Before Jan 1, 2027Lost
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Won
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.