Current community forecast
2030-2034 48%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 25, 12:27 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain.
- This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5 nm process node or smaller with competitive yields - at least 70%.
- Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 70% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.
