KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 49.5%
Yes 49.5%Market quality
21 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$24.1
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Wisconsin Question 1 (limit on partial veto to raise taxes/fees) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?
KalshiUK Autumn Budget 2026: will taxes on banks be increased?
Manifold MarketsWill the ECB raise the rate 25bps in October 2026?
ForecastEx🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments The net effect on tax receipts is calculated using the tax components of HM Treasury's final Budget policy-decisions scorecard and accompanying policy costings. The calculation sums qualifying tax components across all forecast-year columns, counting each once regardless of the Tax or Spend row label. Tax-receipt increases count positively and tax-receipt reductions negatively; spending components are disregarded. OBR's online scorecard may supply the component breakdown, but HM Treasury's published tax-component costings control any discrepancy. Measures first officially announced before the Budget, including before market Issuance, are excluded even if reproduced in its documents or scorecard. Spending changes, forecast revisions and actual tax collections do NOT count. The sum must be strictly positive; zero or a negative sum resolves to NO. Measures need not be legislated or in force. Only the Budget presented on October 28, 2026 qualifies; a postponed Budget does NOT count.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
