KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
3.85% or Below · —
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Stored price
3.85% or Below 5%Leader of 7 outcomes
3.85% or Below 5%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2K
Open interest
$2K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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3.85% or BelowSpread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 20, 26, 12:00 PM UTCOct 21, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 3.85% or Below
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
KalshiHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketRules
If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 20, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Rules for each outcome
- 3.85% or Below
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.86%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is exactly 3.86%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.90%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is exactly 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.91% or Above
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is at least 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.87%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is exactly 3.87%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.88%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is exactly 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.89%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 20, 2026 is exactly 3.89%, then the market resolves to Yes.