KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.61% or above · —
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Stored price
4.77% or above 69%Market line of 15 lines
4.77% or above 69%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.2K
Open interest
$1.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.61% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 20, 26, 7:30 PM UTCOct 21, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.61% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
Kalshi10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 21, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.76% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 21, 2026, or one week following Oct 21, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.61% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.63% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.67% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.65% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.77% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.76% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.81% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.87% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.86% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.69% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.71% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.70% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.73% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.72% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.79% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.78% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.83% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.82% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.85% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.89% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.