KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 104.5 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 5:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 104.5
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
20%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 10398%
Above 1103%
Above 10198%
Above 1089%
Above 10674%
Above 104.5Won
Above 101Lost
Above 99Lost
Above 96Lost
Above 103Lost
Above 106Lost
Above 110Lost
Above 108Lost
Above 113Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Carbon Arc Shell Monthly Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Shell Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year.
