KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 4:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
32.0% / 40.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 10:00 PM UTCAug 6, 27, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will US wage growth exceed 3.7% by July 2027?
KalshiWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsUS labor force participation rate at year-end 2026
KalshiUS labor force participation rate at year-end 2026
KalshiUS labor force participation rate at year-end 2027
KalshiRules
If BLS reports that the labor force participation rate for people ages 25 to 54, seasonally adjusted for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 84.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- This market will use the seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate for people ages 25 to 54 reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release for series LNS11300060.
- Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference month and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.7K
- 24h Vol
- $59.4K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.6K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes88%
- No12%
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $10K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027??
- Kalshi prices No at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027? resolve?
- Will US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027? is scheduled to resolve on August 6, 2027.
- How is Will US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If BLS reports that the labor force participation rate for people ages 25 to 54, seasonally adjusted for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 84.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.