KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 18.5% 99%+44.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21.9K
Liquidity
$38.3K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 4:00 PMSep 7, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If OpenAI scores above 16.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Aug 31, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If OpenAI scores above 17.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.6pt59%
- ChatGPT+2.4pt26%
- Grok-0.2pt6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
- 24h Vol
- $67.9K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-13.0pt53%
- 1500+-18.0pt22%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- No-8.5pt72.3%
- Yes+8.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $194.6K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Jan 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-3.0pt95%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude75.5%
- ChatGPT+2.0pt16.4%
- Gemini-1.0pt2.7%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,84%
- November 30,83%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Claude 6 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- English Premier League Champion
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI market share this week?
- Kalshi prices Above 18.5% at 99% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does OpenAI market share this week resolve?
- OpenAI market share this week is scheduled to resolve on September 7, 2026.
- How is OpenAI market share this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI scores above 16.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.