KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Claude (99%)
Resolved: Aug 31, 2026, 3:09 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Claude
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Qwen1%
Grok2%
Muse1%
Kimi1%
Gemini1%
ClaudeWon
GrokLost
GeminiLost
ChatGPTLost
MuseLost
QwenLost
KimiLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Leaderboard
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.