KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Sep 25, 2026 (99%)
Resolved: Sep 21, 2026, 11:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 21, 2026, 10:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Before Sep 25, 202643%
Before Aug 14, 20261%
Before Aug 21, 20261%
Before Aug 28, 20261%
Before Aug 31, 20261%
Before Sep 4, 20261%
Before Sep 18, 20262%
Before Oct 2, 202699%
Before Oct 9, 20260%
Before Sep 11, 20262%
Before Sep 25, 2026Won
Before Oct 16, 2026Lost
Before Oct 2, 2026Lost
Before Oct 9, 2026Lost
Before Sep 8, 2026Lost
Before Sep 11, 2026Lost
Before Sep 18, 2026Lost
Before Aug 14, 2026Lost
Before Aug 21, 2026Lost
Before Aug 28, 2026Lost
Before Aug 31, 2026Lost
Before Sep 4, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will xAI release Grok 5?
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PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.7 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SpaceXAI
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.