KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 0.2% 50.5%-37.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$4.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
48.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 3:00 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price IndexBureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 0.2% at 50% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? resolve?
- CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2026.
- How is CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.