KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Exactly 0.2% (72%)
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, 2:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Exactly 0.2%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
61%
ConsensusCurrent implied probability
Exactly 0.2% 61.5%+20.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
17 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$593.4
Low liquiditySpread
17.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 83 days ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 3:00 PMJun 10, 26, 12:29 PM
Probability Timeline
Exactly 0.0%1%
Exactly 0.5%1%
Exactly 0.3%38%
Exactly -0.2%1%
Exactly 0.2%72%
61.5%
32.5%
1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt57.8%
- No change-1.0pt40.2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.8M
- 24h Vol
- $4.2M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt72%
- No-1.0pt28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $107K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting53.2%
- September Meeting+0.5pt46.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $358.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.7K
KALSHIWhat will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Inflation+9.0pt99%
- Labor / Job+2.0pt92%
- Tariff+9.0pt89%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.300-1.0pt98%
- Above 334.450+4.0pt98%
- Above 334.35097%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $86.5K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Brazil inflation rate in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- China Annual Inflation 2026
- August Inflation US - Annual
- US gasoline CPI for August
- Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
- Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
- CPI in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI core month-over-month in May 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 0.2% at 62% as of June 10, 2026.
- When does CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? resolve?
- CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? is scheduled to resolve on June 10, 2026.
- How is CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.