KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 60%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 60.0%
Spread
50.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 3:00 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal?
KalshiWill there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketRules
If Apple Inc. has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Apple v.
- OpenAI, No. 5:26-cv-07078 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For this market, the case is Apple Inc. v.
- Chang Liu, Tang Yew Tan, OpenAI Foundation f/k/a OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI Group PBC, and io Products, LLC f/k/a io Products, Inc., U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California No. 5:26-cv-07078-EJD.
- Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy:
- Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if it receives a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Apple Inc.).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Apple win its case against OpenAI??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? resolve?
- Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Apple Inc. has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Apple v.