KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 4.91% (98%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 12:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 4.91%0%
Above 4.90%99%
Above 4.97%5%
Above 4.92%0%
Above 4.84%0%
Above 4.85%0%
Above 4.86%0%
Above 4.87%0%
Above 4.88%0%
Above 4.89%0%
Above 4.93%96%
Above 4.94%0%
Above 4.95%4%
Above 4.96%0%
Above 4.98%4%
Above 4.99%0%
Above 4.90%Lost
Above 4.91%Won
Above 4.93%Lost
Above 4.92%Lost
Above 4.95%Lost
Above 4.97%Lost
Above 4.84%Lost
Above 4.85%Lost
Above 4.86%Lost
Above 4.87%Lost
Above 4.88%Lost
Above 4.89%Lost
Above 4.94%Lost
Above 4.96%Lost
Above 4.98%Lost
Above 4.99%Lost
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Rules
If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.91% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 5Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.90%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.90% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.91%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.91% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.93%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.93% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.92%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.92% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.95%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.95% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.97%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.97% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.84%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.84% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.85%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.85% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.86%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.86% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.87%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.87% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.88%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.88% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.89%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.89% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.94%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.94% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.96%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.96% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.98%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.98% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.99%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.99% at Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.