6% or higher
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
No Stored bid–ask93%–94%Collected: Last trade: 94% · Trade time unknownNormalized research estimate: 94%Prices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.
No Stored bid–ask93%–94%Collected: Last trade: 94% · Trade time unknownNormalized research estimate: 94%Prices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$154
Open interest
$4.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 1:30 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · No
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
PolymarketHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?
PolymarketHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
PolymarketWill the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
Kalshi5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- This market uses the 30-year generic constant-maturity Treasury tenor and the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate. The observation period is from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive. A published rate of 6.00% or higher for any business day in that period satisfies the threshold; intraday values are not considered. Rates are expressed to two decimal places. Revisions after expiration are not considered. Treasury does not publish on weekends or federal holidays; the contract's preceding-business-day provision applies. If the payout condition occurs, expiration may move earlier under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration is 10:00 AM ET one week after the final day of the observation period. Settlement is no later than the following day, subject to Rule 7.1.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.