KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.86% or above · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
4.9% or above Stored bid–ask63%–99%Collected: Last trade: 85% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market line of 15 lines
4.9% or above Stored bid–ask63%–99%Collected: Last trade: 85% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$417.5
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.86% or aboveSpread
—
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 9, 26, 7:30 PM UTCOct 16, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.86% or above
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
Kalshi10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
Kalshi10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
KalshiUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.14% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.96% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.98% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.97% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.02% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.04% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.06% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.08% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.1% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.12% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.