KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above $825 billion · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
Above $875 billion Stored bid–ask66%–74%Collected: Last trade: 74% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market line of 11 lines
Above $875 billion Stored bid–ask66%–74%Collected: Last trade: 74% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$266.6
Open interest
$2K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above $825 billionSpread
—
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 11:00 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 6:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above $825 billion
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $875 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 9, 2026. The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied. The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date.
Rules for each outcome
- Above $825 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $825 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $850 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $850 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $875 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $875 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $900 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $900 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $925 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $925 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $950 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $950 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $775 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $775 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $800 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $800 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $975 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $975 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $1,000 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $1,000 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $1,025 billion
- If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $1,025 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.