KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5.04% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 9:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 5.17%1%
Above 5.18%1%
Above 5.04%99%
Above 5.08%99%
Above 5.19%1%
Above 5.05%99%
Above 5.07%99%
Above 5.06%0%
Above 5.09%0%
Above 5.10%0%
Above 5.11%0%
Above 5.12%0%
Above 5.13%0%
Above 5.14%0%
Above 5.15%0%
Above 5.16%0%
Above 5.04%Won
Above 5.08%Lost
Above 5.05%Lost
Above 5.07%Lost
Above 5.17%Lost
Above 5.18%Lost
Above 5.19%Lost
Above 5.06%Lost
Above 5.09%Lost
Above 5.10%Lost
Above 5.11%Lost
Above 5.12%Lost
Above 5.13%Lost
Above 5.14%Lost
Above 5.15%Lost
Above 5.16%Lost
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Rules
If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.04% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 10Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 5.04%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.04% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.08%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.08% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.05%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.05% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.07%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.07% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.17%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.17% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.18%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.18% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.19%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.19% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.06%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.06% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.09%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.09% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.10%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.10% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.11%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.11% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.12%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.12% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.13%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.13% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.14%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.14% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.15%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.15% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.16%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.16% at Oct 21, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.