Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 75.2%
Prognostiker
91
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert13. März 26, 20:59 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.