Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseRussia 40%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet18. Okt. 25, 03:33 UTC19. Dez. 35, 03:55 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
I’m just a curious guy with zero expertise related to this subject.
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- “Nuclear Weapon”:
- Both “normal” and tactical nukes count.
- Dirty bombs do not count.
- Bombing a nuclear plant or similar, like Zaporizhzhia, does not count.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Russia mit 40% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? entschieden?
- Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? soll am 19. Dezember 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I’m just a curious guy with zero expertise related to this subject.