FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 80%
Nein 80%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
1060,4 €
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?
Manifold MarketsU.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This event predicts whether any nuclear weapon explosive test will be conducted anywhere in the world between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be confirmations published by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Preparatory Commission.
- If the CTBTO confirms that at least one nuclear weapon explosive test occurred during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Suspected or alleged tests that are not confirmed by the CTBTO will not count.
- If evidence is ambiguous or confirmation is delayed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing CTBTO or equivalent authoritative findings.