Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.5%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet5. März 24, 12:47 UTC1. Juli 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsHow will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency?
Manifold MarketsIran invades Kuwait by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill US annex any territory in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 entschieden?
- China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 soll am 1. Juli 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.