Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.5%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet5. März 24, 12:47 UTC1. Juli 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.