Inflation

Fed Decision in July?

No change

+5.4%79%

25 bps increase

-5.9%20%

50+ bps increase

-0.1%1%

+2 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithmNo change79%· ±0 pts

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez

Volume total93,4 M US$

Volume 24h1,9 M US$

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Sim

72%

Não

28%

100 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total4,7 M US$

Volume 24h58,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike by which date?

6.0%3m

October Meeting

69%

September Meeting

61%

July Meeting

-6.0%20%

+2 mais resultados

100 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total1,5 M US$

Volume 24h8,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

17d

Above 3.0%

92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total543 mil US$

Volume 24h10,1 mil US$

KALSHI

CPI in July

1.0%17d

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

88%

+7 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total277,8 mil US$

Volume 24h5,6 mil US$

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Annual

0.1%16d

3.3%

-0.5%37%

3.4%

37%

3.5%

20%

+9 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total104,4 mil US$

Volume 24h5,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

How high will inflation get this year?

21.0%6m

At least 4.0%

100%

At least 4.5%

-21.0%35%

At least 5.0%

21%

+4 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total591,2 mil US$

Volume 24h952,7 US$

KALSHI

US gasoline CPI for July

1.0%17d

Above 320ㅤ

99%

Above 300ㅤ

96%

Above 310ㅤ

96%

+24 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total104,7 mil US$

Volume 24h3,3 mil US$

KALSHI

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

2.0%4d

Above 0.0%

97%

Above 0.1%

-2.0%71%

Above 0.2%

-2.0%3%

+2 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithm≤0.0%98%· ±95 pts

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total107,2 mil US$

Volume 24h3,6 mil US$

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Monthly

3.0%16d

≥0.1%

+3.0%68%

0.0%

26%

-0.1%

-0.4%7%

+6 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total48,7 mil US$

Volume 24h2,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.9%5m

2 (50

-0.5%33%

0 (0

+0.5%30%

1 (25

30%

+3 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total55,8 mil US$

Volume 24h1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0%1a

Não

79%

Sim

+2.0%21%

56 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez

Volume total25,9 M US$

Volume 24h147 US$

KALSHI

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17d

Exactly 3.3%

34%

Exactly 3.4%

31%

Exactly 3.5%

25%

+23 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total169,9 mil US$

Volume 24h559,1 US$

KALSHI

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

+28.5%52.3%

Republican president, <2%

-4.5%23.2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

-10.3%14.9%

+5 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade32 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will CPI get this year?

21.0%5m

Above 4.1%

99%

Above 3.8%

93%

Above 3.9%

93%

+10 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total110,3 mil US$

Volume 24h445 US$

KALSHI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3.5%6m

Soft Landing

+3.5%62%

Overheating

24%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

79 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total55,2 mil US$

Volume 24h1,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5m

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total51,5 mil US$

Volume 24h1,1 mil US$

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17d

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 mais resultados

91 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total68,9 mil US$

Volume 24h498,7 US$

KALSHI

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

27.5%4d

↑ $4.00

+41.5%100%

↑ $3.90

+15.4%100%

↑ $4.25

-27.5%8%

+8 mais resultados

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaPerto da resolução

Volume total9,2 mil US$

Volume 24h2,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

7.5%5m

4.00% to 4.49%

+7.0%42%

4.50% to 4.99%

+7.5%21%

3.50% to 3.99%

-3.1%19%

+5 mais resultados

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total46,2 mil US$

Volume 24h601,2 US$

POLYMARKET

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

3.0%5m

4.1-4.4%

+0.5%31%

3.8-4.1%

-0.5%18%

3.2-3.5%

-1.9%9%

+7 mais resultados

79 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total30,2 mil US$

Volume 24h278,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

0.5%16d

2.4%

+4.5%41%

2.5%

+0.5%25%

≤2.2%

-0.7%13%

+7 mais resultados

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total17,4 mil US$

Volume 24h500 US$

POLYMARKET

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%

+2.1%34%

2.5–2.9%

+0.9%22%

4.0-4.4%

+0.5%10%

+6 mais resultados

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total13,8 mil US$

Volume 24h557,4 US$

POLYMARKET

US Core PCE (June 2026)

0.0

98%

0.1

67%

0.4

+2 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithm≤0.0%98%· ±95 pts

68 • Qualidade médiaSpread desconhecidoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total457 US$

Volume 24h457 US$

ROTHERA

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

1.0%17d

Exactly -0.2%

88%

Exactly 0.1%

29%

Exactly 0.0%

-1.0%28%

+7 mais resultados

68 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez média

Volume total14,4 mil US$

Volume 24h334,1 US$

KALSHI

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)

+1.2%99%

$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)

-1.0%0.3%

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

-0.1%0.2%

+3 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade30 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

0.5%16d

$2.00–$2.25

81%

$2.25–$2.50

-0.5%12%

$1.75–$2.00

+7 mais resultados

56 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez

Volume total15,6 mil US$

Volume 24h166 US$

POLYMARKET

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.7%5m

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

1.1 – 1.5%

43%

1.6 – 2.0%

+0.1%8%

+6 mais resultados

44 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total61,8 mil US$

Volume 24h155,5 US$

POLYMARKET

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

1.0%4m

Não

72%

Sim

+1.0%28%

44 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total37,1 mil US$

Volume 24h234 US$

KALSHI

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

y ≥ 2.0%

100%

y ≥ 2.5%

100%

y ≥ 3.0%

100%

+6 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade18 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Core PCE MoM - June 2026

0.2%

55%

0.1%

-2.8%31%

0.3%

-1.3%6%

+4 mais resultados

Referencia CoinRithm≤0.0%98%· ±95 pts

60 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total8,6 mil US$

Volume 24h110 US$

POLYMARKET

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Silicon Data

+3.4%44%

Ornn

-1.8%23.8%

SemiAnalysis

-0.8%12.2%

+5 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade8 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Alphabet

+6.6%95.4%

NVIDIA

94.6%

Microsoft

+5.7%90.2%

+4 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade9 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Sim

56.3%

Não

43.7%

Previsão da comunidade18 previsoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will inflation get in 2026?

0.5%5m

Above 3%

+1.4%100%

Above 4%

+2.0%100%

Above 3.5%

+0.1%100%

+5 mais resultados

72 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total1,3 M US$

Volume 24h6,3 US$

POLYMARKET

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17d

Exactly 2.4%

38%

Exactly 2.5%

26%

Exactly 2.3%

+4.0%12%

+13 mais resultados

60 • Qualidade médiaSpread desconhecidoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total604,7 mil US$

Volume 24h28 US$

KALSHI

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Sim

80%

Não

20%

Previsão da comunidade144 previsoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

1.0%5m

Above 6.5%

100%

Above 6.6%

97%

Above 6.7%

77%

+3 mais resultados

56 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução

Volume total61,6 mil US$

Volume 24h85,5 US$

KALSHI

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

Não

96.7%

Sim

3.3%

Previsão da comunidade11 previsoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

1.0%17d

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

20%

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.1% or below

14%

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

13%

+12 mais resultados

56 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez

Volume total71,6 mil US$

Volume 24h11 US$

KALSHI

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

0.1%16d

0.2%

34%

0.1%

26%

0.3%

-0.1%25%

+4 mais resultados

83 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total61,6 mil US$

Volume 24h19,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%

39%

4.50-4.99%

26%

5.50-5.99%

-1.4%12%

+7 mais resultados

49 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade

Volume total77 mil US$

Volume 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

100%

He leaves Argentina during his first term

100%

He travels to Chile during his first term

100%

+67 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade162 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Não

84.2%

Sim

15.8%

Previsão da comunidade50 previsoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

73a

Sim

79.3%

Não

20.7%

Previsão da comunidade58 previsoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will South Africa collapse?

23a

After 2050

50%

Before 2050

48.8%

Before 2045

45%

+7 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade22 previsoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

CPI-U index in July

17d

Above 335.8

98%

Above 333.6

88%

Above 334.0

55%

+9 mais resultados

40 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploLiquidez médiaPerto da resolução

Volume total51,7 mil US$

Volume 24h0 US$

KALSHI

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

0.1%5m

30.0-34.9%

+0.1%42%

25-29.9%

+0.5%36%

35–39.9%

+0.6%5%

+4 mais resultados

71 • Qualidade médiaSpread apertadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade

Volume total27,6 mil US$

Volume 24h23,5 US$

POLYMARKET

Ativos Cripto Relacionados

Fed Decision in July?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

July Inflation US - Annual

How high will inflation get this year?

US gasoline CPI for July

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

July Inflation US - Monthly

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

How high will CPI get this year?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

US Core PCE (June 2026)

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

China Annual Inflation 2026

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

Core PCE MoM - June 2026

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

When will South Africa collapse?

CPI-U index in July

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026