Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
FedTítulos e TesouroOne-OffPolíticaMacro e economiaPolítica dos EUA4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.2%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 31 minutos
11/05/26, 14:28 UTC31/12/30, 00:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if the US federal government has, on or after January 1, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2030, unilaterally restructured previously-issued outstanding marketable US Treasury notes, bonds, or TIPS without bondholder consent.
- YES if any of the following has been announced and taken effect:
- Statutory reduction of stated coupon rate on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled extension of stated maturity on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled swap of outstanding Treasuries for new instruments with materially altered cash flows (lower coupons, longer maturities, principal haircut), including a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"-style forced swap of foreign holdings
- Statutory cap on Treasury interest payments that materially reduces coupon receipts on outstanding debt
