Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 84%
Previsores
27
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado11/02/25, 12:05 UTC21/01/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketRegras
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
Mercados abertos
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 34,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mi
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 543,8 mil
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7,6 mi
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 é resolvido?
- Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 deverá ser resolvido em 21 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).