PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Below 4.50% 84%Líder entre 9 opções
Qualidade do mercado
62 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
589,8 €
Liquidez
6,9 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
3/09/26, 01:06 UTC31/12/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Futuur10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Kalshi10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Comparação de fontes de previsão
2 plataformas cotam atualmente este mercado. A probabilidade de referência ponderada pela liquidez da CoinRithm para Below 4.50% é de 84%. As cotações diferem cerca de 1 ponto percentual entre as plataformas mais afastadas.
Referencia CoinRithm Below 4.50% 84% · 2 plataformas · 1 pt de dispersao entre venues
