Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 27 de out. de 2026, 12:43 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 86.6%
Não 86.6%Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado23/12/25, 00:16 UTC31/12/50, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Russian dissenters face refoulement from the US or a EU country if said country is Russia's ally? [SEE DESCRIPTION]
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack NATO before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurWhere will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the United States conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state (as defined below) before the Russian Federation conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state, at any time after this market is created and before the N/A date.
- How it resolves
- YES: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the United States, and it occurs before any qualifying Russian attack.
- NO: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the Russian Federation, and it occurs before any qualifying U.S. attack.
- N/A (in 2050): Resolves N/A on 2050-12-31 23:59 UTC if neither the United States nor the Russian Federation has carried out a qualifying military attack against any NATO member state by that time.
- Key definitions (for resolution)