FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 88%
Não 88%Qualidade do mercado
33 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
917,5 €
Baixa liquidezTraders
6
Comentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Russia attack NATO before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack Europe with drones before October 31?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketEU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by which date?
PolymarketRegras
This event predicts whether Russian armed forces will carry out kinetic military action within the territory of a NATO member state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the attacked state, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.
- If Russia conducts kinetic military action inside the territory of a NATO member during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, or mere troop deployments will not count.
- If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.
