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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
Manifold Markets

Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]

PolíticaIAGeopolítica6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Iran 100%
Líder entre 43 opções
Previsores

262

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 dias

Desatualizado
6/01/26, 11:1431/12/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Greenland7%

Regras

###Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
  • Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
  • The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
  • For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
  • Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.

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Regras

###Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
  • Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
  • The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
  • For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
  • Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.