Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 76.5%
Previsores
102
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado10/11/22, 16:57 UTC1/01/38, 05:00 UTC
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Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.
- It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.
- Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.
- For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.
- In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence.
- I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
Mercados abertos
Geopolitics
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
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KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 mais resultados
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- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? é resolvido?
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2038.
- Como Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.