Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.4%
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3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado7/04/26, 11:20 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegras
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
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- Volume total
- € 9,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 102,1 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
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POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
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KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
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- Volume total
- € 44,4 mil
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? é resolvido?
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.