US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
9.0 pts (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East26d
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
September 30 72%+4.5ptLíder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado
≤74 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
52,7 mil €
Liquidez
106 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
9
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
2/09/26, 0:2430/09/26, 23:59
Tendências
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.