PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
December 31 18%-9.5ptLíder entre 10 opções
Qualidade do mercado
≤74 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
45,7 mil €
Liquidez
77,9 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
0.2 pt
Spread apertadoComments
1,146
Variação 7d
-3.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
25/06/26, 23:231/01/27, 4:59
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”).
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify.
- A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
- Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).