PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 99%+0.3pt
Qualidade do mercado
88 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
35,7 mil €
Liquidez
213,3 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
1.4% / 1.5%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread apertadoComments
0
Variação 7d
-0.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 minutos
29/06/26, 23:5330/09/26, 0:00
Tendências
Regras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Comparacao de fontes de previsao
Referencia CoinRithm 1% · 2 plataformas · faixa de 3 pt