PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaProbabilidade implícita atualSim 3%+0.0%
Qualidade do mercado
73 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
61,5 mil €
Liquidez
194,1 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
3.0% / 3.3%
Spread
10.0%
Spread amploVariação 7d
+0.1%
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
29/06/26, 23:5330/09/26, 0:00
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Yes3%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por volume de 24h| Plataforma | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketEsta páginaMais ativa | 97% | +94pt | 61,5 mil € | 194,1 mil € | há 5 minutos | |
 Myriad | 94% | +91pt | 9,1 € | 1,3 mil € | há 17 minutos | Abrir → |
Também disponível em Myriad
Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?
0.0%2m
6%
94%
32 • Baixa qualidadeSpread desconhecidoBaixa liquidezMercado raso
Volume total35,3 mil €
Volume 24h9,1 €
MYRIADRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Grandes negociações
$4.9k97.4%NoScrimpyhá 5 dias
Tendência de volume
$70.2k2 de jul.7d de dados8 de jul.
Mercados Relacionados
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
985 mil €December 31: 37%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by...?
378,7 mil €August 31: 33%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
348,4 mil €December 31: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
193 mil €Before September: 13%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6 mil €Sim: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026?
641,9 €Sim: 33.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAtivos nestes tópicos
Notícias Relacionadas
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.NewsIran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%Blockchain.News
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%Blockchain.NewsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.