Pelo menos 20% das democracias ocidentais deixarão de ser de facto democráticas até 2034?
One-OffGeopolíticaPolíticaEurope7aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.2%
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado13/06/23, 17:56 UTC2/03/34, 07:59 UTC
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Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.
- Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.
- If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-the-majority-of-western-democr)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Pelo menos 20% das democracias ocidentais deixarão de ser de facto democráticas até 2034??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 85% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Pelo menos 20% das democracias ocidentais deixarão de ser de facto democráticas até 2034? é resolvido?
- Pelo menos 20% das democracias ocidentais deixarão de ser de facto democráticas até 2034? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de março de 2034.
- Como Pelo menos 20% das democracias ocidentais deixarão de ser de facto democráticas até 2034? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.