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Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
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Preço registado
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Líder entre 3 opções
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Qualidade do mercado
37 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
1,2 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
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Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
17/09/26, 04:00 UTC31/12/26, 18:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Before Jan 1, 2029
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
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Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiRegras
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required.
Regras de cada resultado
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.