Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore H2 2030 81.4%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado30/07/25, 15:41 UTC30/07/28, 15:31 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
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PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsRegras
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.