Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 71.9% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?

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Não 71.9%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 13 minutos

28/06/23, 19:24 UTC28/06/28, 19:00 UTC

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This video predicts that a model will achieve 100% performance on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding Benchmark.

This will resolve YES if a model is listed as having achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU on papers with code, in a technical document, or published article by 3:00 PM EST June 28, 2028.
This will resolve NO if a model is not listed as ahving achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU.