PolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoEste mercado está fechado e aguardando uma resolução confirmada.
Aguardando resolução verificada
A CoinRithm aguarda uma liquidação confirmada pelo provedor antes de tratar este mercado como resolvido.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 29 de out. de 2026, 13:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidade implícita atual
1520+ 98%Líder entre 5 opções
1520+ 98%Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
20,2 mil €
Liquidez
9,1 mil €
Liquidez médiaContratos em aberto
9,7 mil US$
Spread
1.2 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado28/10/26, 21:51 UTC1/07/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
1520+98%
1530+96%
1540+95%
1560+2%
1550+1%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.