When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

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Before Dec 2035 88.7%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

28/02/26, 01:48 UTC1/01/36, 06:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

IA BaseballOne-Off9a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

Líder entre 10 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

28/02/26, 01:48 UTC1/01/36, 06:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Reportar um problema de dados deste mercado

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: A Manifold Markets cota Before Dec 2035 em 88.7% em 26 de setembro de 2026.
Quando When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? é resolvido?: When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2036.
Como When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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Use este mercado em código ou em um agente de IA

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