When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
IAOne-Off8aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2035 78.8%Líder entre 10 opções
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multiple choice
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+0.5 pts
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Atualizado há 11 minutos
30/07/25, 15:46 UTC1/01/35, 16:44 UTC
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As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2035 em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] é resolvido?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2035.
- Como When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As reported by OpenAI.