PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
Anthropic · —
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Referência guardada
Anthropic 56%
Anthropic 56%Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
464 €
Baixa liquidezContratos em aberto
281,3 US$
Compra / Venda
— / —
AnthropicSpread
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Comentários
0
Variação 7d
+2.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
18/09/26, 16:42 UTC1/01/28, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Ordem mínima (cotas):
- 5
- Incremento de preço:
- 1 pontos percentuais
- Taxas:
- Sim
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Profundidade de mercado · Anthropic
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.